Performance of Saudi real estate asset classes remains mixed in Q2 2021: Knight Frank

Riyadh

Performance across Saudi Arabia’s various real estate asset classes remained mixed in the second quarter of 2021, with the residential market continuing to outperform, Knight Frank said in its latest quarterly “Saudi Arabia Real Estate Market Review”.

Residential sales volumes across Saudi Arabia surged by 26% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2021, with the total value of transactions increasing by 2% over the same period.

Around 58,000 residential transactions were recorded in Q2, compared to 47,000 deals during the same period last year.

The government's continued efforts to expand the mortgage market, combined with the delivery of large affordable housing schemes through the Sakani program, fostered a remarkably resilient residential landscape.

Selling prices of apartments and villas in Riyadh increased by 7.6% and 4.7% YoY, respectively, in Q2 2021.

Total number of homes sold surged by 77% YoY, while the total value of transactions grew by 34% YoY over the same period.

In Jeddah, apartment prices jumped by 5.9% YoY over the same period, while villa prices declined by 2% YoY.

Residential transactions, in terms of volume and value, rose by 44% and 13% YoY, respectively, in the second quarter, driven by a notable increase in the uptake of mortgages provided by banks and financial institutions.

Average apartment prices in Dammam increased by 4.6% YoY in Q2 2021, while average villa prices fell by 4.1% YoY. Meanwhile, transaction volumes and value slipped by 8% and 12% YoY respectively in Q2.

The global property consultants firm expected 100,000 homes to be ready in Riyadh by the end of 2023, taking the total housing stock in the capital to 1.4 million units.

Jeddah's housing stock is expected to grow by 35,000 units, while 20,000 residential units will be added in Dammam by the end of 2023.

Office Market

Riyadh's office market continues to experience fragmented performance. Average Grade A rents edged up by 1.5% YoY in the second quarter of this year. The relative outperformance of Grade A offices can be attributed to a marked increase in the number of licenses granted to foreign investors wishing to set up businesses in the Kingdom. Meanwhile, Grade B rents experienced a 1.1% decline YoY in Q2 2021.

The market demand is expected to maintain uptrend as government-driven economic reforms spur renewed confidence and hasten business growth.

Total office space is expected to reach 5.3 million square meter (sqm) by the end of 2023.

Jeddah's office market performance remained relatively subdued in Q2 2021, with Grade A rents falling marginally by 0.8%. Grade B rents declined by 1.6% over the same period.

Rental performance in Dammam continued to soften, with Grade A and Grade B rents declining by 1.7% and 2.7% YoY, respectively, in the same period.

“Over the next 12 months, we expect the office market in Dammam to remain under pressure. Rents and occupancy rates are likely to soften further as supply outstrips demand,” according to Knight Frank.

In the long term, however, demand for office space is seen picking up as economic reforms drive job creation rates and inward investment, spurring office space demand.

Retail Market

In Riyadh, average regional and super-regional mall lease rates declined 1% YoY to SAR 2,670/sqm in Q2 2021. Community malls also saw rents softening by 1.5% YoY to SAR 1,950/sqm.

In Jeddah, average regional and super-regional mall rents fell by 1.5% YoY to SAR 2,685/sqm, while community mall rents decreased by 2.8% YoY to SAR 1,740/sqm over the same period.

Knight Frank forecast nearly 700,000 sqm of retail space to be complete in Riyadh by 2023.

Further, retail stock is expected to rise by almost 30% YoY to 2.7 million sqm in Jeddah.

In Dammam, total retail stock currently stands at about 1.2 million sqm. By 2023, this figure is expected to reach 1.6 million sqm.

Hospitality Market

Total hotel supply stood at about 17,700 rooms in Riyadh, 11,820 rooms in Dammam, and 13,230 rooms in Jeddah by May-end.

By 2023, total hotel supply is due to increase by 27% YoY, or 4,800 rooms in Riyadh, and by 64% and 18% YoY to 20,600 and 13,800 rooms in Jeddah and Dammam, respectively.

In Riyadh, average daily rates (ADR) and average occupancy levels declined by 3.3% and 18.4% YoY, respectively, in May. As a result, market-wide revenue per available room (RevPAR) fell by 21% YoY over this period to SAR 254.

In Jeddah, occupancy rates increased to 21%, while RevPAR grew by a substantive 60% to SAR 352. Meanwhile, average occupancy in Dammam remained relatively stable at 50%, while ADR grew YoY by 8.3%.

* From the beginning of 2021 until May