Saudi Arabia sees surplus of SAR 9 bln in 2023; estimates revenue at SAR 1.123 trln, spending at SAR 1.114 trln

Saudi Arabia estimated public revenue in 2023 budget at SAR 1.123 trillion, and expenditures at SAR 1.114 trillion, with an expected surplus of SAR 9 billion, the Ministry of Finance said in its pre-budget statement for the fiscal year 2023.

It also expected to generate revenue of SAR 1.222 trillion in 2022, and record expenditure of SAR 1.132 trillion with a surplus of SAR 90 billion. 

The 2023 budget aims to strengthen the Kingdom’s financial position through maintaining safe levels of reserves to enhance the Kingdom’s capacity to deal with external shocks.

Preliminary estimates indicate that the total revenues in 2023 will be lower by 8.1% from the estimated revenues in the 2022. This is due to the direction that the government is adopting in basing the estimates of oil and non-oil revenues in the budget on conservative standards in anticipation of any developments that may occur in the domestic and global economy. 

Total revenue in 2023 is projected to grow by 7.4% compared to previous estimates as a result of the marked improvement in economic activities, in addition to the fact that the approved budget for 2022 was estimated based on conservative criteria due to the state of uncertainty accompanying the pandemic during budget preparation. 

The ministry expected total revenue to maintain growth to nearly SAR 1.205 trillion in 2025, backed by global and local economic growth forecasts supported by the projections of domestic and global economic growth over the medium-term, in addition to the government’s continuous efforts to diversify the economy, which in turn will contribute to enhancing revenues in accordance with economic growth. 

Macroeconomic Projections for FY2023 and Medium Term: 

The Ministry of Finance said the key fiscal targets for 2023 and the medium term. It added that the 2023 budget reflects progress in implementing programs and projects that support economic growth and diversification, improving public services and strengthening programs for social benefits and subsidies schemes, while preserving the gains achieved in the previous years on the public finance level.

The Kingdom’s government targets to complete the financial and economic reforms made under Vision 2030, and maintain fiscal sustainability, which includes the adoption of fiscal policies that contribute to maintaining fiscal sustainability and improving public financial management. 

The medium-term fiscal policy also targets to strengthen the Kingdom’s financial position to face external shocks through maintaining government reserves at appropriate levels and maintaining public debt indicators.

Revenue is forecast to reach SAR 1.146 trillion and SAR 1.205 trillion in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Saudi Arabia will continue to post surplus of up to SAR 71 billion in 2025. 

The Kingdom’s public debt is projected at nearly SAR 985 billion.

Despite the expectations of achieving budget surpluses during FY2023, the government aims to continue borrowing activities from the domestic and external markets with the aim of repaying debt principal that comes due during the fiscal year 2023.

In the medium term, it aims to utilize the available opportunities based on market conditions to proactively make additional financing transactions to repay the debt principal dues for the following years and finance some strategic projects, and to execute alternative financing transactions with the aim of financing capital and infrastructure projects. 

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