JPMorgan expects Brent crude to average $70 by end-2025

Oil drilling rig

Brent crude prices are poised to average $73 per barrel in 2025, with the possibility to fall below $70, due to excess supply that would reach 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s analysts in a recent note.

“Assuming that OPEC alliance stays put at current production levels through 2025, we expect Brent prices to dip below $70 by year-end, with WTI exiting the year at $64,” the bank said in a research note.

OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, at its Dec. 5 meeting pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April 2025 and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026 due to weak demand.

JP Morgan said the central theme of their outlook is that “any policies from the incoming Trump administration that could potentially raise oil prices—such as exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues—are likely to be secondary to Trump’s primary objective of keeping energy prices low.”