Higher prices, more subscribers to boost Saudi telcos’ Q2 earnings

Saudi Arabia’s telecommunications companies could see a positive impact from higher prices and a growth in subscriber base on second quarter earnings, despite the dampening effect of expatriates leaving the Kingdom, according to brokerage firms.

All players in the Saudi telecom sector implemented price hikes from January 2018, which were not fully reflected in first-quarter results due to pre-purchases towards the end of Q4, ahead of the introduction of value-added tax (VAT) on Jan. 1. As a result, Q2 results could benefit from the increased prices, Al Rajhi Capital said.

The ongoing FIFA World Cup 2018 tournament could also have increased data consumption, leading to improved performance, the research firm noted.

The number of mobile subscribers also increased, rising 4.5 percent quarter-on-quarter to 42 million at the end of Q1 2018, according to official data from the Communications and Information Technology Commission (CITC). 

“Since the start of 2015, mobile subscribers have seen a significant drop from a high of 53 million. The current increase can be indicative of the reversal in trend,” Aljazira Capital said in a recent report on the telecom sector.

“We expect STC to gain from the increase in subscribers whereas Zain has already shown a decline of 1 million subscribers,” the investment arm of Bank Aljazira said, adding that it expects STC to post earnings of SAR 2.6 billion, whereas Zain and Mobily will continue to post losses.

According to Aljazira Capital’s report, even more significant than the growth in subscribers is the mix of customer base.

While prepaid customers still account for the majority of total subscribers, the number of postpaid subscribers has started to show an increase. Postpaid customers stood at 11.2 million in the first quarter, rising nearly 11 percent year-on-year and representing 27 percent of the total mobile subscriber base

“A higher number of postpaid customers will also mean that market share of the three operators will remain fairly constant, as it is our belief that postpaid customers are more sticky as compared to prepaid,” Aljazira Capital said.

On the other hand, some weakness in subscribers is to be expected as some expatriates could have left before the increase in expat levies takes effect in July, Al Rajhi Capital said.

Moreover, the lifting of the ban on VoIP calls continues to weigh on the sector, along with the introduction of VAT this year, Riyad Capital noted.

Saudi Arabia lifted its ban on internet phone calls in September last year, allowing online and video call services such as those offered by Skype and WhatsApp to become accessible to users in the Kingdom.

In addition to the impact of the expat exodus and VoIP, lower interconnect revenues will also affect the telecom sector’s overall revenue, Nishit Lakotia, head of research at Bahrain-based SICO, told Argaam.

“However, some strength in data prices should offset this to some extent,” he added.

Write to Jerusha Sequeira at jerusha.s@argaamnews.com